NTI analyst presents 2026 fiber demand outlook at China communications conference

NTI Chief Analyst Harvey Shen presented a new global optical fiber and cable report at the 45th Academic Annual Conference on Communication Lines in Nantong, China, on Nov. 4-6. The report says AI data centers are now the main demand engine for fiber, while supply remains tight through 2027 before a possible turning point in 2028.

Why it matters: - AI data centers are becoming the biggest demand driver for optical fiber and cable. - The report points to a market where demand growth, supply bottlenecks and product mix shifts are reshaping pricing power. - The findings matter for telecom operators, cloud providers, fiber makers and suppliers of critical materials.

What happened: - The China Institute of Communications held its 2026 (45th) Academic Annual Conference on Communication Lines in Nantong, Jiangsu Province, from Nov. 4 to 6. - The conference theme was “Communication Lines in Green and Intelligent Networks with Computing–Power Coordination.” - The event was organized by the Technical Committee on Communication Lines of the China Institute of Communications, the Fifth Research Institute of Telecommunication Science and Technology Co., Ltd., and the Sichuan Institute of Communications. - Experts and representatives from research institutes, telecom operators, optical fiber and cable manufacturers, materials and equipment suppliers, and testing and certification organizations attended. - Feng Gao, Secretary-General of the Asia-Pacific Optical Fiber and Cable Industry Association and General Manager of Network Telecom All Media, and Harvey Shen, Chief Analyst at NTI, were invited to attend. - Shen presented the 2026 Global Optical Fiber and Cable Industry Development Report.

The details: - The report says AI data centers are the primary driver of optical fiber and cable demand. - Global demand in 2026 is estimated at about 630 million fiber-km. - North American AI data centers account for more than 70% of optical fiber demand. - Demand control is shifting faster from telecom operators to cloud service providers. - Network architecture upgrades, rising connection counts and repeated increases in optical module speeds are pushing fiber consumption higher in AI computing clusters. - On the supply side, limited global availability of optical preforms is constraining output. - Product-mix mismatches, trade barriers and regional delivery constraints are slowing the conversion of planned capacity into actual supply. - The report expects 2027 to remain the tightest year in the current supply-demand cycle. - The report sees 2028 as the likely turning point for global supply. - As prices rise and profitability recovers, pricing power is shifting from buyers to sellers. - Industry value is expanding beyond bare fiber into optical cables and connectivity solutions.

Between the lines: - The report suggests AI infrastructure is no longer a niche growth area for fiber demand; it is now a central force shaping the entire market. - Supply constraints appear structural, not just temporary, because materials, product mix and regional logistics are all involved. - The shift in value from fiber to cables and connectivity points to stronger competition around integrated solutions, not just raw output. - The conference also reinforced a broader industry focus on green networks, computing-power coordination and supply-chain resilience.

What's next: - The report says G.654.E, hollow-core, polarization-maintaining and multicore fibers will move on different commercialization timelines. - Industry attention will need to stay on critical materials, including helium and high-purity silicon tetrachloride. - New capacity coming onstream in 2028 could trigger a structural price correction. - Some high-value-added fiber products are still likely to remain short in supply. - The market is expected to show gradually easing overall supply alongside persistent structural tightness. - The global optical fiber and cable industry is not expected to return to its pre-2024 state. - NTI said it will keep monitoring computing infrastructure and the optical fiber and cable industry and continue research and exchange support for the sector.